Floyd Mayweather v Saul Alvarez

Its a mega fight the boxing world has been relishing. A young, strong, hungry Mexican contender with the will of a nation behind him. A so far indomitable king of the ring who has reigned supreme for well over a decade. Both are undefeated. Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather faces off against Saul Canelo Alvarez at the boxing mecca; MGM Grand, Las Vegas on September 14th where we will find out who will become ‘The One?’.

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Oscar De La Hoya’s belief that he provided a blueprint on how to beat Floyd Mayweather despite having been beaten by way of a split decision has some substance, with no fighter since being able to have the success to land punches that he did at times in the fight against Floyd back in 2007. Alvarez is signed to the Golden Boy’s promotional company and will be given plenty of encouragement and tactical advice by his fellow countrymen.

Canelo WBC and WBA Light middleweight champion with a record of 42W-0L-1D with 30 wins coming by way of KO is a fighter that certainly has power in abundance but barring a spectacular one punch, picture perfect knockout, which is always possible but unlikely against a man who has been in with big punchers many times before and conquered with ease, may well have to heed the advice of De La Hoya. In order to win, he will have to throw a high volume of punches at high intensity and keep the pace up relentlessly for the full 12 rounds. If he feels the need to pace himself the rounds will slip by and be banked by Money Mayweather, which could result in an unassailable lead and a unanimous points victory to Floyd priced at 1/2.

Ringmaster, Floyd (44W-0L 26KO), will look to dictate the tempo and nullify his opponents attributes with use of his shoulders, elbows and arms in a defensive armoury that has been heralded as unbreachable at times, before countering with sharp and accurate shots. His power is often under estimated but he obviously has enough power to make fighters think twice about letting there shots go when coming at him. Whilst acknowledging that a high pressure game plan is needed, many fighters fall into the same trap of pressuring by walking him down but then they are unable to let their shots go and get picked off. If Canelo’s focus becomes altered to thinking about avoiding shots all the time and he starts trying to hit and not get hit like Mayweather does, he will lose a chess match against a grandmaster. It seems that Canelo has to be prepared and able to take some hurtful shots to get into the position to let rip.

Canelo possesses huge natural advantages in strength, size and power with the fight taking place at a catchweight of 152lbs. However at the 30 day mandatory weigh in he was around 15lbs over the limit still. It seems an alarming amount to need to shed especially when he already looks to have a cut up and chiseled physique. Could the weight fluctuations leave him too drained and sap his strength? 6/1 for a Mayweather KO is a real good price.

On the flip side, looking back at previous fights, he made 153.5lbs for his last fight against Austin Trout at Light Middleweight which is only a pound and half more and by fight night had rehydrated back to around 170 lbs. Mayweather weighed in at 150.3 so he is already under the official limit well in advance. This shows the natural body frames are not meant for the same division. There could be close to a 20lbs weight difference in favour of Alvarez, which is huge. Will the weight difference be insurmountable even for the great Floyd Mayweather Jr? A big puncher who is far stronger and heavier Alvarez is 11/2 to win by knockout.

One thing for sure theorising about beating Mayweather Jr is a lot harder than executing on the night so unsurprisingly he is a 1/3 odds on favourite. He will need to call upon every ounce of his knowledge to come through; its expected his wealth of experience will prove to be to great for his 23yr old opponent. At odds of 1/2, a pts win for him is the most likely result but the interest is so high as every year he gets that bit older and slower the chances of him getting beat must surely increase.

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